Friday, September 28, 2007

. “Give Us this Day our Daily Fuel.”

Overheard on the A.U. campus: They say that, in the USA, farmers are fermenting their wheat into ethanol to use as petrol.

In Zimbabwe every mother’s child is aware that southern Africa has suffered from a decade of near-continuous drought. Therefore, when the first heat of spring initiates convective activity along the afromontane highland, many anxious eyes turn toward the clouds that build over Moçambique. By late September, all of Zimbabwe’s farmers are thinking about early rains—and most of us on this campus are hoping that they will not come.

Here at Africa University, we raise winter wheat. Because of our troubles with electrical power, we could not pump enough water to irrigate at optimal levels, but the wheat crop still looks pretty darn good, and we should be able to harvest it before too long. In the meanwhile, however, we are holding our collective breaths. Our wheat, of course, is a short-stemmed “miracle” variety, and only a deluge of Noah-ian proportions would cause it to lodge (= fall over). Even a modest rain, however, could initiate some germination, on the stalk. If this should occur, our only likely buyer would be the national grain board, which pays a standard price of abot $41,000,000Z/tonne.

This would not be good for us, because this year we are greedy for wheat-money. Indeed, throughout the Southern Hemisphere, farmers with winter wheat are dreaming of riches—because the mega-producers in Australia have suffered a general failure. This catastrophe is of such magnitude that shockwaves are already being felt around the world. In the USA, for example, futures for December wheat are being quoted at over $9/bu. That is almost 250% of what Zimbabwe’s grain board would pay; therefore we’re hoping that our wheat stays dry so that it can be traded at a more, uh, international rate.[1]


Of course, given the national food-crisis, it is conceivable that Zimbabwe’s government could appropriate 2007’s best wheat and turn it into flour. But I consider this unlikely. If modern universities run on electricity, then modern nations run on diesel fuel, and this country’s access to diesel depends upon her balance of trade. Therefore, I suspect that, one way or another, much of Zimbabwe’s wheat will be exported into a richer world, where people who pray for daily bread actually expect to get it.

Folks, I have tried to think through this, uh, bid-ness, and to write it up so that the intertwined issues of rain, wheat, and dollars make some sense. But I know I’ve failed—and to tell the truth, I’m not too sorry about the failure. Who wants to understand a world in which a breadless country contemplates the export of her wheat? And for heaven’s sake don’t let me get started on the wheat à gasohol foolishness. If that rumor has any basis in fact, then I reckon this mysterious world has de-facto amended the Lord’s Prayer.


[1] Purchase of A.U.’s wheat by the grain board would probably not result in more bread for Zimbabwe. Grain with any appreciable percentage of germination is unsuitable for flour. It would make excellent animal fodder, and Zimbabwe is very short of meat. But currently the slaughter of cattle for local consumption is severely regulated—and any increase in beef production would almost certainly be used to address Zimbabwe’s adverse balance of trade.

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